基于Kmeans和IWOA-BiGRU-EC的超短期光伏功率预测方法研究
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P456.1

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(42275156;42205150);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20210661)


Ultra-short term photovoltaic power prediction based on Kmeans and IWOA-BIGRU-EC
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    摘要:

    为了提高光伏功率的预测精度,本文建立了一种基于Kmeans和IWOA-BiGRU-EC的超短期光伏功率预测模型(KIBE模型)。首先,利用Kmeans聚类将历史数据划分为三类天气类型的相似日样本;其次,为了提升双向门控循环单元(Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit, BiGRU)的预测效果,通过引入改进Circle混沌映射初始化、非线性收敛因子及添加惯性权重的方法提出一种改进鲸鱼优化算法(Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm, IWOA)并构建IWOA-BiGRU模型进行初步预测;最后,结合初步预测结果进行误差修正(Error Correction,EC),利用变分模态分解将误差序列分解为若干个分量,通过IWOA-BiGRU预测模型对每个分量作预测并叠加得到误差预测结果,将初步预测结果与误差预测结果求算术和得到最终功率预测结果。选取江苏省某光伏电站的实测数据进行实验,结果表明本文提出的KIBE模型对比其他模型可以有效提升在三类天气条件下的预测结果精度。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power, this paper establishes an ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction model (KIBE model) based on Kmeans and IWOA-BiGRU-EC. Firstly, Kmeans clustering was used to divide historical data into similar daily samples of three types of weather types; secondly, in order to improve the prediction effect of BiGRU (Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit), an Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA) was proposed by introducing improved Circle chaos map initialization, nonlinear convergence factor and adding inertia weight, and the IWOA-BiGRU model was constructed for preliminary prediction; finally, the Error Correction (EC) was carried out in combination with the preliminary prediction results, and the error sequence was decomposed into several components by using the variational mode decomposition. The IWOA-BiGRU prediction model is used to predict each component and superimpose to obtain the error prediction results. Calculate the arithmetic sum of the preliminary prediction result and the error prediction result to obtain the final power prediction result. The measured data of a photovoltaic power station in Jiangsu Province were selected for experiments. Results show that the KIBE model proposed in this paper can effectively improve the accuracy of prediction results under three types of weather conditions compared with other models.

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曾伟麟,张颖超,丁仁惠,范赫,叶小岭.基于Kmeans和IWOA-BiGRU-EC的超短期光伏功率预测方法研究.气象科学,2025,45(6):916-928 ZENG Weilin, ZHANG Yingchao, DING Renhui, FAN He, YE Xiaoling. Ultra-short term photovoltaic power prediction based on Kmeans and IWOA-BIGRU-EC. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(6):916-928

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  • 收稿日期:2023-08-29
  • 最后修改日期:2023-10-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-07
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