不同天气尺度强迫下霰粒子参数对强降水预报敏感性分析
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P458.121

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中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023P020)


Sensitivity of graupel particle properties in precipitation forecasting under different synoptic forcing regimes
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    摘要:

    数值模式对不同天气尺度强迫下的降水预报能力存在差异,霰粒子作为重要的雨水源汇项,在数值模拟过程中直接影响地面降水的预报结果。本文利用WRF模式,基于Thompson双参数方案进行数值试验,研究数值模式中不同的霰粒子参数对于强、弱两种天气尺度强迫下降水预报结果的影响。结果表明:调整霰粒子密度及下落末速度系数的大小对强、弱天气尺度强迫下的降水预报均有改善。弱强迫过程中,深对流区域降水占主导,各类水凝物中雨水含量明显增加;强强迫过程中,深对流区域和层状云区域对降水影响相当,雪粒子增长明显。两类过程中高霰粒子密度及小的下落末速度系数预报雨水及霰粒子质量比极值出现高度较高。弱强迫程中暖云过程影响更大,霰粒子密度及下落末速度系数大小的改变不仅可以改变垂直速度的强度,也会对空间分布产生较大影响;强强迫过程降水的准确预报主要受冷云过程影响,霰粒子参数的变化仅对垂直速度强度产生影响,对其空间分布特征影响较小。

    Abstract:

    Numerical precipitation forecasts exhibit variability under differing atmospheric conditions. Graupel particles, which act as a crucial sink for rainwater, have a substantial impact on surface precipitation predictions in numerical models. This study utilizes the WRF model coupled with the Thompson dual-moment scheme to investigate the influence of various graupel particle parameters on precipitation forecasts under both strong and weak synoptic forcing. The results indicate that modifying the graupel particle density and fall velocity coefficient enhances precipitation forecasts in both scenarios. Under weak forcing, deep convection primarily governs precipitation, leading to an increase in rainwater content across various hydrometeor species. In contrast, under strong forcing, both deep convection and stratiform clouds contribute comparably to precipitation, with a marked increase in snow particle concentrations. High graupel particle density and low fall velocity coefficient predict extreme mass ratios of rainwater to graupel in both conditions. In weak forcing, the warm cloud process is more dominant, with changes in graupel particle properties affecting both vertical velocity and spatial distribution. Conversely, under strong forcing, the cold cloud process prevails, with alterations in graupel parameters primarily influencing the intensity of vertical velocity, while having minimal effects on spatial distribution.

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孙璐,王秋萍,董妍,金爽,娄盼星,马永永,惠英.不同天气尺度强迫下霰粒子参数对强降水预报敏感性分析.气象科学,2025,45(6):888-902 SUN Lu, WANG Qiuping, DONG Yan, JIN Shuang, LOU Panxing, MA Yongyong, XI Ying. Sensitivity of graupel particle properties in precipitation forecasting under different synoptic forcing regimes. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(6):888-902

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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-23
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-07
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