湖南大范围持续低温雨雪天气过程的关键影响因子
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P434

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湖南省自然科学基金项目(2026JJ80884;2025JJ80285);湖南省气象局业务能力建设项目(NLJS15)


Key factors of the large-scale and sustained low-temperature, rain and snow weather process in Hunan Province
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    摘要:

    利用观测资料和再分析资料,通过选取影响严重的4次低温雨雪冰冻过程,诊断分析湖南低温雨雪冰冻灾害的环流系统组合性异常,综合讨论环流系统和大气层结对湖南低温雨雪冰冻天气及降水相态的影响,提取湖南低温雨雪冰冻预报预警的关键因素和指标。结果表明:阻塞高压、高低空急流、南支槽、地面冷高压以及温度廓线是湖南雨雪冰冻预报预警的关键因子。强盛的极涡发生分裂,为阻塞形势的发展提供了有利基础;阻塞形势的建立,使得大气环流的经向扰动明显加大,不断有冷空气南下;同时强盛的西太平洋副热带高压阻挡了冷空气的向南推进,对湘南的冻雨有着重要的作用。阻塞高压的位置和强度对低温雨雪冰冻的发生发展同样重要,其处于60°~120°E时,更有助于强盛冷空气南下。南支槽对湖南低温雨雪冰冻事件中水汽和能量输送有着重要作用。湖南的地理位置决定了其特殊的温度层结,是造成湖南相态转换和多相态降水存在的直接原因。

    Abstract:

    Based on observational datasets and reanalysis data, this study investigated four severe low-temperature freezing rain and snow events that significantly impacted Hunan Province. Synergistic anomalies in atmospheric circulation systems associated with these cryogenic disasters were diagnostically analyzed, and the influences of circulation patterns and atmospheric stratification on precipitation phase transitions and multimodal precipitation characteristics in Hunan were systematically examined. Critical factors and predictive indicators for freezing rain and snow forecasting were subsequently identified. Results demonstrate five essential forecasting elements: blocking high-pressure systems, upper-and lower-level jet streams, southern branch troughs, surface cold highs, and temperature profiles. Key findings reveal that the intensified polar vortex splitting provides favorable conditions for blocking pattern development. The established blocking regime enhances meridional circulation disturbances, facilitating persistent cold air incursions southward. Concurrently, the robust western Pacific subtropical high acts as a barrier to further cold air penetration, crucially influencing freezing rain formation in southern Hunan. The spatial positioning and intensity of blocking highs critically determine cryogenic event evolution, with optimal cold air transport occurring when blocking highs reside between 60°E and 120°E. Southern branch troughs serve as principal conduits for moisture and energy supply during these events. Hunan's unique topography establishes characteristic vertical temperature stratifications that directly govern precipitation phase transitions and sustain concurrent precipitation types. These findings collectively enhance the physical understanding and predictive capability for complex winter precipitation systems in central China.

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苏涛,陶雅琴,陈静静,江婉婷.湖南大范围持续低温雨雪天气过程的关键影响因子.气象科学,2025,45(6):851-863 SU Tao, TAO Yaqin, CHEN Jingjing, JIANG Wanting. Key factors of the large-scale and sustained low-temperature, rain and snow weather process in Hunan Province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(6):851-863

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-15
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-07
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