2019年超强正位相印度洋偶极子事件的成因分析
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P461.2

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北京市气象局科技项目(BMBKJ20250116;BMBKJ202301009);北京市气象局青年创新团队(CXTD202506)


Analysis on the extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2019
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    摘要:

    2019年秋季,赤道印度洋地区爆发了近40 a以来最为严重的一次正印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD)事件。该事件造成澳大利亚地区和东非地区均出现了极端气候灾害。本文利用英国哈德莱数据中心的海温数据资料及欧洲中期天气数据中心ERA5的风场、位势高度场及表面气压数据资料对2019年秋季爆发的"超强"正IOD事件的成因进行探究。结果表明,在2019年6—7月澳大利亚高压及8月孟加拉湾越赤道气流的共同作用下,赤道印度洋地区拥有了充足的东风气流。随后,在Bjerknes正反馈机制的作用下,2019年秋季爆发了"超强"正IOD事件。在年际变化中,6—7月的澳大利亚高压、8月的孟加拉湾越赤道气流的强度相互独立,并与9—11月IOD事件的强度呈现显著的正相关。因此,当6—7月的澳大利亚高压、8月孟加拉湾越赤道气流均呈现显著偏强时,同年9—11月极有可能爆发"超强"正IOD事件,对东西印度洋周边国家在农业、经济以及生态系统等各方面产生严重影响。

    Abstract:

    In the boreal autumn of 2019, the equatorial Indian Ocean region experienced the most severe positive Indian Ocean Dipole (Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD) in nearly four decades. The event caused severe extreme climate disasters in Australia and East Africa. The sea temperature data from the Hadley Data Center of the UK and the wind field, geopotential height field and surface pressure data of the Fifth Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis were used to explore the cause of the extreme positive IOD event in the boreal autumn of 2019. Results show that there was sufficient easterly flow in the equatorial Indian Ocean due to the combined action of the Australia High from June to July in 2019 and the cross-equatorial flow in the Bay of Bengal in August 2019. The extreme positive IOD event broke out in the boreal autumn of 2019 under the action of the Bjerknes positive feedback mechanism.The intensity of the Australia High from June to July and the cross-equatorial flow in the Bay of Bengal in August were independent of each other, and there was a significantly positive correlation between the intensity of the IOD event from September to November.In conclusion, when the Australia High from June to July and the cross-equatorial flow in the Bay of Bengal in August are both significantly stronger, an extreme positive IOD event will probably broke out from September to November in the same year,which will have serious impacts on agriculture, economy, and ecosystems of countries around the East and West Indian Oceans.

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李雅洁,单瑞娟,邱梓轩,张冬香,陈倩倩.2019年超强正位相印度洋偶极子事件的成因分析.气象科学,2025,45(6):801-813 LI Yajie, SHAN Ruijuan, QIU Zixuan, ZHANG Dongxiang, CHEN Qianqian. Analysis on the extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2019. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(6):801-813

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-10
  • 最后修改日期:2024-06-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-07
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