基于决策树的定点雷电预警方法研究
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P429

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中国气象局雷电重点开放实验室开放课题(2023KELL-B011);重庆市气象部门业务技术攻关项目(YWJSGG-202316)


Research on fixed-point lightning warning method based on decision tree
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    摘要:

    本文针对景区、矿山、油库、工业园区等点状目标、小范围目标,探索建立基于多源数据的定点雷电预警模型方法。通过梳理金佛山雷电专项试验外场2020—2022年闪电定位数据、大气电场数据、多普勒雷达资料等,进行数据质量控制并形成雷暴、非雷暴样本集,利用SPSS Statistic数据分析软件建立了分类与回归树(Classification and Regression Tree,CART)、卡方自动交互检验(Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection,CHAID)两种算法的决策树模型,并对提前时间在0~54 min时模型的性能进行了对比分析,使用F1分数指标对模型的性能进行了评估。结果表明,两种模型性能表现各有不同,但CART模型较CHAID模型的拓扑结构更为简单,分类效果更优。研究结果为景区、矿山、油库、工业园区等对象的雷电预警工作提供了价值参考。

    Abstract:

    The present study established a fixed-point lightning warning model based on multi-source data for point targets or small-scale targets, such as scenic spots, mines, oil depots, and industrial parks, etc. By analyzing the lightning positioning data, atmospheric electric field data, Doppler radar data, and other data from the Jinfo Mountain lightning experiment field during the period of 2020 to 2022, the data quality control was performed, and a representative sample set of thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm events were sorted out. Decision tree models employing two algorithms: Classification and Regression Tree (CART) as well as Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) were established using SPSS Statistical software. The performance of these models was compared and analyzed when the lead time ranged from 0 to 54 minutes, with evaluation based on the F1 score metric. The results indicated that the two models performed differently, and the CART model demonstrated a simpler topology and superior classification accuracy compared to the CHAID model. The research findings offered valuable insights for lightning warning work in scenic areas, mines, oil depots, industrial parks and other relevant objects.

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李卫平,王飞,任照环,张新科,肖燕,许伟.基于决策树的定点雷电预警方法研究.气象科学,2025,45(5):739-749 LI Weiping, WANG Fei, REN Zhaohuan, ZHANG Xinke, XIAO Yan, XU Wei. Research on fixed-point lightning warning method based on decision tree. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(5):739-749

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-06
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