上海地区大雾时空分布特征和道路风险区划
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P468.028

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上海市2020年度"科技创新行动计划"社会发展科技攻关定为资助项目(20DZ1200403)


Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and road risk zoning of heavy fog in Shanghai
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    摘要:

    为探究大雾灾害对上海市道路交通的影响,本文利用2010—2020年上海市19个气象观测站逐日能见度观测、相对湿度等气象资料,分析大雾的时空分布特征。从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性和承灾体易损性3个方面构建风险评估模型,利用ArcGIS进行分析计算,完成上海地区大雾对道路的风险评估。结果表明:12月—次年2月是上海地区道路大雾灾害事件发生最多的月份,1 d中大雾高发时段为23时—次日05时,06—09时消散,不同等级大雾持续时间各有不同。上海地区道路大雾灾害风险共分为5级。其中,高风险路段占全市高速路/快速路总路段的8.6%,主要分布在上海东部、西部和西南部郊区,主要路段有G15金山段,G1503东南环段、南环段,G40崇明西段,G60松枫段,S19金山南段,S32浦东段,S36金山西段,S4奉贤南段及长江道大桥崇明段等路段;较高风险路段占25.8%,分布在G15松江、嘉定段,G1503东环段、同三段,G40崇明东段,G50沪青平段,S19金山中段,S2,S32松江、闵行段,S36金山中段和陈海公路中段等路段;中等风险路段占比26.4%,分布在G1503北环段,G2青浦段、嘉定段,G50青浦西段,G60松江西段,陈海公路北段和南段等路段;较低—低风险路段占比39.1%,集中在外环线以内的快速路及G50和S4近郊城区路段。所得到的道路大雾风险灾害风险分布情况,可为上海市道路受大雾影响风险管控提供依据。

    Abstract:

    To explore the adverse effects of fog disasters on road traffic in Shanghai, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of fog using daily visibility observations, relative humidity, and other meteorological data from 19 meteorological observation stations in Shanghai, spanning from 2010 to 2020. A risk assessment model was developed based on three key factors: the hazard of disaster, the sensitivity of disaster-prone environments, and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing entities. ArcGIS software was utilized for the analysis and calculation, enabling the completion of the fog risk assessment on roads in Shanghai. Results reveal that the highest incidence of fog disasters on Shanghai's roads occurs from December to February. The peak fog period is between 23∶00 BST and 05∶00 BST, with fog dissipating between 06∶00 BST and 09∶00 BST. The duration of fog at different intensity levels varies. The risk of fog disasters on Shanghai roads is classified into five levels. High-risk sections make up 8.6% of the total expressway/fast road sections in the city and are mainly located in the eastern, western, and southwestern suburbs (of Shanghai). Notable sections include the Jinshan section of G15, the southeast ring and south ring sections of G1503, the west section of G40 Chongming, the Songfeng section of G60, the southern section of S19 Jinshan, the Pudong section of S32, the western section of S36 Jinshan, the southern section of S4 Fengxian, and the Chongming section of the Yangtze River Bridge. Relatively high-risk sections account for 25.8% and are concentrated in the Songjiang and Jiading sections of G15, the east ring section of G1503 and the Tongsan section, the east section of G40 Chongming, the G50 Huqingping section, the middle section of S19 Jinshan, the Songjiang and Minhang sections of S32 and S2, the middle section of S36 Jinshan, and the middle section of Chenhai Highway. Medium-risk sections comprise 26.4%, with notable locations including the north ring section of G1503, the Qingpu section of G2, the Jiading section, the west section of G50 Qingpu, the west section of G60 Songjiang, and the north and south sections of Chenhai Highway. Low-risk sections, accounting for 39.1%, are concentrated in expressways within the outer ring road as well as suburban urban sections like G50 and S4. The distribution of road fog risk provides a basis for implementing risk control measures on Shanghai roads affected by fog.

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顾宇丹,戴建华,王强,贾佳,陈丽君.上海地区大雾时空分布特征和道路风险区划.气象科学,2025,45(5):731-738 GU Yudan, DAI Jianhua, WANG Qiang, JIA Jia, CHEN Lijun. Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and road risk zoning of heavy fog in Shanghai. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(5):731-738

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  • 收稿日期:2023-05-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-06
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