2025年夏季中国主要天气气候事件特征及成因简析
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P466

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中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J067)


Characteristics and causes of the major weather and climate events in China during summer 2025
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    摘要:

    在全球变暖导致极端天气事件频发的背景下,中国夏季气候异常特征及成因研究至关重要。本文基于中国国家级气象观测站数据与ERA5再分析资料,采用客观化定量化方法识别了区域性高温、暴雨等事件。重点分析了北方5次典型高温事件的时空特征与湿热属性,并基于地表能量平衡分析和整层水汽收支分析诊断其成因。资料分析和评估研究揭示,2025年夏季全国平均气温创历史新高,降水呈"南北多、中间少"分布;北方高温事件呈现显著阶段性差异:6月为干热事件,而7—8月则演变为持续时间长、范围广、强度大且叠加高湿的极端复合湿热事件。成因分析表明,7—8月高温与整层水汽增多引发的向下长波辐射增加直接相关,水汽输送受偏西、偏北、偏强的副高外围水汽的辐合影响。本研究揭示了2025年夏季气候异常及北方高温事件的演变特征与物理机制,为理解全球变暖背景下区域极端事件的规律提供了典型样本和新视角。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of frequent extreme weather events caused by global warming, research on the characteristics and causes of summer climate anomalies in China is of great significance. Based on data from China's national meteorological observation stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, this study identified regional high-temperature, heavy rainfall, and other events using objective and quantitative methods. The paper focused on analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics as well as hydrothermal properties of five high-temperature events in typical provinces in northern China, and diagnosed their causes through the column-integrated water vapor budget equation. Data analysis and evaluation reveal that the national average temperature in summer 2025 reached a record high, with precipitation showing a distribution pattern of "rainy in the north and south, dry in the center". High-temperature events in northern China exhibited significant phased differences: June saw dry-heat events, while July-August witnessed the evolution into extreme compound hydrothermal events characterized by long duration, wide scope, high intensity, and superimposed high humidity. Cause analysis indicates that the high temperatures in July-August were directly related to the increased downward longwave radiation induced by enhanced total column water vapor. Additionally, water vapor transport was affected by the water vapor convergence in the periphery of the anomalously strong Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) that shifted westward and northward. This study reveals the evolutionary characteristics and physical mechanisms of the 2025 summer climate anomalies and high-temperature events in northern China, providing a typical case and a new perspective for understanding the rules of regional extreme events against the background of global warming.

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印曼曼,梅梅,王国复,王有民.2025年夏季中国主要天气气候事件特征及成因简析.气象科学,2025,45(5):641-652 YIN Manman, MEI Mei, WANG Guofu, WANG Youmin. Characteristics and causes of the major weather and climate events in China during summer 2025. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(5):641-652

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-06
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