一种基于深度学习模型的雷达回波临近外推预报方法
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TP456

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中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J008);山东省自然科学基金面上资助项目(ZR2021MD121;ZR2022MD072;ZR2022MD088);山东省气象局榜单类专项(2023SDBD01);海河流域气象科技创新资助项目(HHXM202404);环渤海区域海洋气象科技博同创新项目(QYXM202301)


A deep learning-based extrapolation method for radar echo nowcasting
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    摘要:

    针对气象雷达回波深度学习外推方法中存在的回波边缘扭曲、模糊弥散失真及真实性衰退的问题,在卷积长短期记忆网络(Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory,Conv-LSTM)中引入残差模块、生成器与判别器,构建生成对抗—残差卷积长短期记忆网络(Generative Adversarial-Residual Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network,GAN-rcLSTM)深度学习模型,同时针对不同强度回波赋予不同权重得到自定义的加权损失函数并融入GAN-rcLSTM得到自定义损失函数—生成对抗—残差卷积长短期记忆网络(Weighted Loss Function-Generative Adversarial-Residual Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network,Wloss-GAN-rcLSTM)。基于2021—2022年山东省及周边地区历史雷达回波数据集对Wloss-GAN-rcLSTM模型进行回波外推训练与测试,建立预报时长为0~2 h、逐6 min更新的时空型深度学习雷达回波外推模型。检验评估表明,Wloss-GAN-rcLSTM雷达回波外推模型较光流法、预测递归神经网络(Predictive Recurrent Neural Network,PredRNN)及GAN-rcLSTM方法在强降水关注的45 dBZ阈值下其临界成功指数(Critical Success Index,CSI)分别提升了0.12、0.07与0.02,清晰度指标结构相似性指数(Structural Similarity Index,SSIM)分别提升了0.009、0.042与0.11,且个例检验显示Wloss-GAN-rcLSTM最优适用于飑线等中尺度天气过程预报。

    Abstract:

    To address issues such as edge distortion, blurring, and loss of realism in radar echo extrapolation using deep learning methods, a residual module, generator, and discriminator were introduced into the Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (Conv-LSTM) framework to construct a Generative Adversarial-Residual Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network (GAN-rcLSTM) deep learning model. Additionally, a customized weighted loss function, which assigns different weights to radar echoes of varying intensities, was designed and integrated into GAN-rcLSTM, resulting in the Weighted Loss Function-based Generative Adversarial Residual Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network (Wloss-GAN-rcLSTM) model. Using a historical radar echo dataset from Shandong Province and its surrounding areas (2021-2022), the Wloss-GAN-rcLSTM model was trained and tested for radar echo extrapolation. A spatiotemporal deep learning radar echo extrapolation model capable of 0-2 hour forecasting with 6-minute updates was established. Evaluation results indicate that, at the Critical Success Index (CSI) threshold of 45 dBZ, which is of particular interest for heavy precipitation, the Wloss-GAN-rcLSTM model outperforms the optical flow method, Predictive Recurrent Neural Network (PredRNN), and GAN-rcLSTM by 0.12, 0.07, and 0.02, respectively. For the clarity metric, structural similarity index (SSIM), improvements of 0.009, 0.042, and 0.11 units were observed, respectively. Case studies further demonstrate that Wloss-GAN-rcLSTM is effectively suited for forecasting mesoscale weather processes, such as squall-line systems.

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魏海文,郭俊建,周成,王靓,张登旭.一种基于深度学习模型的雷达回波临近外推预报方法.气象科学,2025,45(4):549-559 WEI Haiwen, GUO Junjian, ZHOU Cheng, WANG Liang, ZHANG Dengxu. A deep learning-based extrapolation method for radar echo nowcasting. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(4):549-559

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  • 收稿日期:2023-05-23
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-29
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