基于CMA-GFS4.0模式西南低涡暴雨过程偏差特征分析
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P457.6

基金项目:

四川省科学技术厅重点研发项目(2024YFFK0407);中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSZ006);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金(SCQXKJYJXMS202312;SCQXKJYJXZD2403)


Analysis on deviation characteristics of southwest vortex rainstorm process based on CMA-GFS4.0 model
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    中国气象局全球数值预报系统(CMA-GFS)于2023年5月升级到v4.0,为了评估CMA-GFS升级前后对四川西南低涡暴雨过程的预报能力及升级后偏差特征,本文选取2022年和2023年该类过程对CMA-GFS、区域数值预报系统(CMA-MESO)和欧洲天气预报系统(ECMWF)进行对比检验及典型个例诊断分析。对比检验指出:CMA-GFS模式大暴雨量级漏报明显;暴雨量级评分2022年显著高于ECMWF和CMA-MESO,2023年评分下降且略低于ECMWF。针对2023年7月26—28日典型西南低涡暴雨个例,从环流形势、低涡系统等多维度对CMA-GFS进行评估诊断,结果表明:CMA-GFS4.0模式预报主要影响系统位置及移动路径和实况基本一致,降水落区基本正确,对低涡暴雨过程具有指示意义;风速尤其南风分量预报从初始场开始即显著偏弱,导致低层双低空急流漏报,与风速相联系的动力作用预报偏弱是本次过程量级预报偏弱的主要因素;低层干偏差造成低层能量和层结不稳定条件预报偏弱,导致对流强度偏弱且持续时间短;西南低涡前期各项偏差相对明显,低涡强盛期偏差开始减小甚至出现正负转变趋势。

    Abstract:

    The China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS) has been upgraded to version 4.0 in May 2023. To evaluate the forecast capability and bias characteristics of CMA-GFS before and after the upgrade, this study compares and analyzes the performances of CMA-GFS, the Regional Numerical Weather Prediction System (CMA-MESO), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in predicting southwest low vortex-induced heavy rainfall events in Sichuan in 2022 and 2023. The comparative evaluation shows that: the CMA-GFS model underestimates the extreme heavy rainfall event;with the rainfall scores in 2022 significantly higher than those of ECMWF and CMA-MESO; while in 2023, the scores decreased and were slightly lower than those of ECMWF. A multi-dimensional evaluation and diagnostic analysis of CMA-GFS was conducted for a typical southwest low vortex case from July 26-28, 2023, including the circulation pattern and low vortex system. The results indicate that: the position and movement of the main influencing system forecasted by the CMA-GFS 4.0 model are consistent with the observation, with accurate rainfall location prediction, offering useful guidance for the low vortex heavy rainfall events; the forecasted wind speed is significantly underestimated from the initial field, especially the component of southward wind, leading to an under forecast of the low-level jet stream, implying that the weak dynamic forecast associated with wind speed is a major factor for the underestimated rainfall intensity; the underestimation of low-level energy and instability conditions are related to the dry bias in the lower atmosphere, resulting in weaker convective intensity and shorter duration; Biases in the early stages of the southwest low vortex are relatively prominent, but the biases decrease and even reverse during the peak stage of the vortex.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

徐琳娜,安琳莉,康岚,邓梦雨.基于CMA-GFS4.0模式西南低涡暴雨过程偏差特征分析.气象科学,2025,45(4):504-514 XU Linna, AN Linli, KANG Lan, DENG Mengyu. Analysis on deviation characteristics of southwest vortex rainstorm process based on CMA-GFS4.0 model. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(4):504-514

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-07-01
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-25
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-29
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码
您是第位访问者
气象科学 ® 2026 版权所有
技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司