多个历时的异常降水的重现期计算方法研究
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P468.024

基金项目:

四川省科技计划资助项目(2023YFS0434);四川省科技计划资助项目(2022YFS0544);中国气象局西南区域气象中心川藏铁路气象服务技术创新团队基金(XNQYCXTD202201)


Study of calculation method of return period of multi-duration abnormal precipitation
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    2020年8月11日四川省芦山县国家气象站出现了远超历史平均值的异常降水,24 h雨量达425.7 mm,其中3 h雨量达348.6 mm,造成了较大的气象灾害。为准确评估本次降水天气过程在当地历史上的影响,使用芦山国家气象站1980—2021年共42 a的多个历时(60,120,180,360,720,1 440 min)的年最大值降水资料,采用了根据卡方检验排序,以均方误差和残差平方和和Wasserstein距离两个指标为评判标准,兼顾不同历时降水的分布一致性,在80个概率密度分布函数中筛选了最优分布johnsonsb分布,并根据分布函数的逆函数推算重现期。结果表明:与目前水文和气象上经常采用的皮尔逊Ⅲ型、耿贝尔分布、伽马分布等类型有限的分布相比,该方法能够保证拟合的总体数学误差更小,兼顾了工程实用性,特别当出现异常降水时,其计算的重现期更接近实际情况。经过雨城、天全、宝兴和石棉4个县区的对比,采用该方法计算的重现期能够较好地反映降水重现期情况。

    Abstract:

    On 11 August, 2020, the National Meteorological Station in Lushan County, Sichuan Province, experienced an extremely abnormal precipitation event that far exceeded historical averages. The 24-hour rainfall reached 425.7 mm, ranking second in historical records for Sichuan Province. Within a 3-hour span, rainfall reached 348.6 mm, causing significant meteorological disasters. To accurately assess the impact of this rainfall event in the local history, annual maximum rainfall data spanning 42 years (1980-2021) with various durations (60,120, 180, 360, 720, 1 440 minutes) were collected from the Lushan National Meteorological Station. Employing a combination of chi-square test sorting, mean square error, residual sum of squares, and Wasserstein distance, as evaluation criteria, while considering the consistency of precipitation distributions across different durations, the optimal distribution, Johnsonsb distribution, were selected from among 80 probability density distribution functions. Reoccurrence period wasinferred by using the inverse function of the distribution. Results indicate that this method, when compared to commonly used limited distributions such as Pearson Type III, Gumbel, and Gamma distributions in hydrological and meteorological contexts, minimized overall mathematical fitting errors and considered engineering practicability. Particularly during anomalous precipitation events, the computed reoccurrence periods were more in line with actual scenarios. Through comparison across counties including Yucheng, Tianquan, Baoxing, and Shimian, the reoccurrence periods calculated by using this method effectively reflected precipitation reoccurrence characteristics.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

钱正迪,周学云,张鹤鸣,伏薇,陈泓吾.多个历时的异常降水的重现期计算方法研究.气象科学,2025,45(4):490-503 QIAN Zhengdi, ZHOU Xueyun, ZHANG Heming, FU Wei, CHEN Hongwu. Study of calculation method of return period of multi-duration abnormal precipitation. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(4):490-503

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-05-23
  • 最后修改日期:2023-08-27
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-29
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码
您是第位访问者
气象科学 ® 2026 版权所有
技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司