2024/2025年冬季中国主要天气气候事件特征
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P466

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中国气象局气候变化专题资助项目(QBZ202408);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J037);国家电网有限公司科技项目(1400-202357631A-3-2-ZN)


Characteristics of the major weather and climate events in China during the winter of 2024/2025
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    摘要:

    2024/2025年冬季,我国气候总体呈"暖干"特点。全国平均气温较常年同期偏高0.4℃,阶段性起伏大,降水量较常年同期偏少41.8%,为1961年以来历史同期第三少,华北、华东、华南等地均明显偏少。主要天气气候事件包括:有10次冷空气过程影响我国,发生次数接近常年同期。1月25—28日的全国型寒潮过程影响范围广、降温幅度大、综合强度为2000年以来1月第四强,寒潮导致部分省份遭受雪灾或低温冷冻害。干旱主要集中于华南、长江中下游地区、西南地区等地,广西干旱日数为1961年以来同期最多。前冬,气象干旱发展迅速,1月中旬干旱影响范围最大,之后,长江中下游地区气象干旱有所缓和,华南中东部及云南西南部、江苏等地干旱持续。初步分析表明,1月下旬寒潮主要与中高纬环流场存在明显的经向性调整有关,我国北方和中东部大部为位势高度负距平,有利于槽后冷空气南下。华南、长江中下游、云南等地的干旱可能与冬季北极涛动(AO)呈现负位相有关,东亚冬季冷空气活动路径偏东,到达上述地区的冷空气偏弱,气温相对偏高,加之受西风气流控制,不利于水汽输送,冷暖空气难以在该区域交汇,不利于产生降水。

    Abstract:

    In the winter of 2024/2025, China's climate is generally characterized by warm and dry conditions. The national average temperature was 0.4 ℃ higher than the normal of the same period. The periodic fluctuations were large. The precipitation was 41.8% less than the normal of the same period and the third lowest in the same period of history since 1961. Particular in North China, East China and South China, the seasonal precipitation were significantly less than normal. The major weather and climate events include: there are 10 cold air processes affecting China, which is close to the normal of the same period. Among then, the nationwide cold wave from January 25 to 28 had extensive impacts,caused sharp temperature drops, and ranked as the fourth strongest in January since 2000. It triggered snow disasters or low temperature freezing damage in some places of several provinces. The drought mainly concentrated in South China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Southwest China and other places. Guangxi experienced its most number of drought days for the same period since 1961. In early winter, the meteorological drought developed rapidly, peaking in mid-January with the widest affected area. After that, the meteorological drought eased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, and persisted in central and eastern South China, southwest Yunnan and Jiangsu. The preliminary analysis shows that the late-January cold wave is mainly related to the obvious meridional adjustment of the circulation field in the middle and high latitudes, with negative geopotential height anomalies over northern and central-eastern China, which is conducive to the southward movement of cold air behind the trough. The droughts in South China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, Yunnan may be associated with the negative phase of the Arctic oscillation (AO) in winter, which shifted the East Asia winter cold air path eastward. Weaker cold air reaching these regions led to relatively higher temperature. Additionally westerly airflow dominance hindered moisture transport, preventing the convergence of cold and warm air and thus suppressing precipitation.

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代潭龙,周星妍,吕卓卓,王雅琦,高歌,翟建青.2024/2025年冬季中国主要天气气候事件特征.气象科学,2025,45(2):299-308 DAI Tanlong, ZHOU Xingyan, Lü Zhuozhuo, WANG Yaqi, GAO Ge, ZHAI Jianqing. Characteristics of the major weather and climate events in China during the winter of 2024/2025. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(2):299-308

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-21
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-03
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