基于WOFOST模型的冬小麦长势评估和产量预报——以2021年度冬小麦为例
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P49

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中国气象局创新发展专项(CXF2021J065;CXF2023J060)


Winter wheat growth evaluation and yield prediction based on WOFOST model: a case study of the growth of winter wheat in 2021
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    摘要:

    为实现世界粮食研究模型(World Food Studies,WOFOST)在气象业务服务中的应用,利用WOFOST模型模拟的冬小麦逐日生育进程、叶面积指数和地上总生物量,运用模糊数学方法构建冬小麦长势评估指数,基于模拟的地上总生物量和穗干重采用对比法构建冬小麦单产预报模型。在对2015—2020年度历史检验的基础上,开展2021年度全国和各主产区冬小麦长势评估和单产预报。结果表明:(1)基于WOFOST模型,2015—2020年度冬小麦动态长势评估结果与冬小麦生育期内气象条件影响和单产增减趋势基本一致,全国和各主产区冬小麦单产预报平均准确率为90.2%~98.5%;江淮江汉基于WOFOST模型的冬小麦单产平均预报准确率高于统计模型,全国和华北黄淮区比统计模型偏低1.0~2.2个百分点。(2)基于WOFOST模型的2021年度全国和各主产区冬小麦长势评价指数均为前期低后期高,其中2—3月指数呈明显上升趋势,与实际气象条件的变化一致。(3)基于地上总生物量、穗干重,2021年度全国冬小麦单产预报平均准确率分别为98.7%、99.0%,各主产区冬小麦单产预报平均准确率分别为92.3%~99.4%、89.3%~99.7%;基于WOFOST模型的全国和华北黄淮冬小麦单产预报效果略好于统计模型,其它主产区预报效果接近或差于统计模型。

    Abstract:

    As to achieve the application of World Food Studies (WOFOST) model in meteorological service, the growth evaluation index for winter wheat was constructed by usage of fuzzy mathematics method based on the development stage, leaf area index and total aboveground production simulated from WOFOST model, and yield prediction model was proposed by year-to-year comparative method based on total above ground production and dry weight of living organs. The growth evaluation index and yield prediction model were tested in 2015-2020 and further used to assess winter wheat growth and yield at national and regional scales in 2021. It was clear that the results of dynamic growth evaluation for winter wheat based on WOFOST model in 2015-2020 were in line with the influence of meteorological conditions within winter wheat growing season and trend in yield. The average accuracy of yield predictionin China and major producing areas was 90.2%-98.5%. In the perspective of yield prediction, the average accuracy based on WOFOST model was higher than that derived from statistical mode in Jianghuai and Jianghan while the accuracy based on WOFOST model was 1.0-2.2 percentage points lower than that derived from statistical model in China, North China and Huanghuai. Based on WOFOST model,the growth evaluation index for winter wheat in China and all major production areas was low in the early stage and high in the late stage in 2021 during which it significantly increased from February to March, keeping with the change of meteorological conditions.Using the yield prediction model constructed on simulated total aboveground production and dry weight of living organs, the national average accuracy in 2021 was 98.7% and 99.0%, and the average accuracy in main production areas was 92.3%-99.4% and 89.3%-99.7%, respectively. The performance of yield prediction based on WOFOST model was slightly better than that derived from statistical model in China, North China and Huanghuai, while it was close to or worse than that derived from statistical model in other main producing areas.

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郑昌玲,魏瑞江,张蕾.基于WOFOST模型的冬小麦长势评估和产量预报——以2021年度冬小麦为例.气象科学,2025,45(2):284-292 ZHENG Changling, WEI Ruijiang, ZHANG Lei. Winter wheat growth evaluation and yield prediction based on WOFOST model: a case study of the growth of winter wheat in 2021. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(2):284-292

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  • 收稿日期:2022-07-08
  • 最后修改日期:2023-03-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-03
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