影响紧水滩水库流域的两次热带气旋降水特征及其成因对比
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P426.615;P458.121

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浙江省自然科学联合基金资助项目(LZJMY24D050007;LZJMY23D050004);浙江省基础公益研究计划(LGF21D050002);浙江省气象科技计划项目(2021YB10;2020ZD05;2023ZD10;2023ZD12)


Rainfall characteristics and causes of two track-similar tropical cyclones associated with Jinshuitan reservoir basin
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    摘要:

    利用2000—2016年泛浙江区域的逐小时观测降水数据、紧水滩流域雨量观测报汛站的逐日及逐3 h面雨量数据、ERA5逐小时0.25°×0.25°再分析数据和上海台风所热带气旋最佳路径数据集,对影响紧水滩水库流域的历史台风进行统计,挑选出路径最为相似但在该流域降水量差异最为显著的一对台风: "碧利斯" (0010)和"鲇鱼"(1617),并对其降水特征及其成因进行对比研究。结果表明,虽然"碧利斯"强度更强,但其在紧水滩流域的过程面雨量及最大累积降水方面均明显弱于"鲇鱼"。经分析可知成因如下:(1)前者移速较快,强降水持续时间较短。(2)环境场方面,"碧利斯"活动期间高层南亚高压主体更强,但其活动区域远离高压中心,受16 700 gpm线控制,而"鲇鱼"处于高压中心16 750 gpm线控制下,更有利于出现强辐散;中层"碧利斯"活动期间副高较强,引导作用显著,"鲇鱼"处于两环高压之间,环境场引导作用较弱;低层大尺度水汽输送条件方面,前者优于后者,但关注时段内紧水滩流域处于"碧利斯"的水汽辐散区、"鲇鱼"的水汽辐合区,这是导致局地降水差异显著的重要原因之一。(3)多要素及集合动力因子诊断分析表明,关注时段内"碧利斯"与"鲇鱼"在紧水滩上空比湿及对流涡度矢量分布均相似,但后者上升运动及散度垂直通量明显强于前者,即局地垂直运动和相应的低层辐合、高层辐散较强,是引发"鲇鱼"在该流域形成强降水的另一重要原因。

    Abstract:

    Based on the hourly precipitation observation of Zhejiang Province and its adjacent area, daily and 3-hourly areal rainfall data of Jinshuitan reservoir basin, ERA5 hourly reanalysis (0.25°×0.25°) and best track data set from Shanghai Typhoon Institute, historical Tropical Cyclones (TCs) that had an influence on Jinshuitan reservoir basin between 2000 and 2016 are investigated statistically. A pair of TCs, Bilis(0010) and Megi(1617) are picked out as they have the most similar tracks while with the most significant rainfall difference. The causes of this difference are investigated in detail subsequently. In spite that Bilis has greater intensity than that of Megi, its areal and maximum accumulative rainfall are both much less than the latter’s. Reasons are as follows. Firstly, Bilis has a faster translation speed and relatively shorter rainfall duration. Secondly, as for the general circulation, the South Asia High (SAH) at 100 hPa is stronger during the lifespan of Bilis than that of Megi, but Bilis is under the control of 16 700 gpm contour, far away from the SAH center, while Megi is within 16 750 gpm area and beneficial for stronger divergence at high level. At middle level, the west Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is stronger during the life cycle of Bilis, playing an effective steering role. However, Megi keeps its way between two rings of WPSH, which is not favorable to a fast forward movement. Large-scale water vapor transportation of Bilis at lower level is more vigorous than that of Megi, but Jinshuitan reservoir basin is mainly covered in the water vapor divergent area during the time period we focus, whereas it is in the convergent area during that of Megi, proving to be one of the most important reasons of the marked rainfall difference. Thirdly, multifactorial diagnostic analysis show that Bilis and Megi have similar distribution of specific humidity and vertical component of convective vorticity vector, but when ascending motion and vertical divergence flux are involved, it is found that Megi is much stronger than Bilis. The above result shows that stronger updraft along with stronger lower-level convergence and higher-level divergence is another important reason for the more intense rainfall of Megi.

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许娈,朱占云,任晨平,邱金晶.影响紧水滩水库流域的两次热带气旋降水特征及其成因对比.气象科学,2025,45(2):240-253 XU Luan, ZHU Zhanyun, REN Chenping, QIU Jinjing. Rainfall characteristics and causes of two track-similar tropical cyclones associated with Jinshuitan reservoir basin. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(2):240-253

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  • 收稿日期:2021-09-10
  • 最后修改日期:2023-04-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-03
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