航空能见度预警预报技术进展
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P412.17

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智慧地球重点实验室开放基金资助项目(KF2023ZD03-02);北极阁基金(BJG202209);中国气象局创新发展项目(CXFZ2025J116)


Progress of aviation visibility early warning and forecasting technology
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    摘要:

    我国民航地面气象能见度观测指标主要有跑道视程(Runway Visual Range, RVR)、主导能见度(Dominant Visibility, VIS)及气象光学视程(Meteorological Optical Range, MOR)等,其中RVR是国际民航组织认可的、决定航空器起降的能见度标准。但其估算模型被国外航空仪器厂商垄断,且与MOR相比,RVR还受能见度垂直分布的影响,与背景亮度、跑道灯光强度联系密切。边界层结构的复杂性及非气象因子的难以预测性都为RVR的预警预报带来困扰。本文介绍了RVR与MOR及VIS的关系,分析了气象因子、背景亮度及跑道灯光强度对RVR的影响,梳理了当前航空业中能见度预报的技术进展,探讨了提高航空能见度预报水平的可能途径。RVR、MOR和VIS都是表示能见度的量,三者的物理意义、探测规范、影响因子均不同,导致其数值有明显差距,但相关关系高,在特定情况下具有替代性;气象因子对MOR的影响机制研究广泛,但缺乏研究背景亮度、跑道灯光强度对RVR的影响特征,且当前难以预报亮度因子,影响了RVR的有效预报;对比于当前地面观测的MOR,利用激光雷达及卫星测量斜程能见度,能提供更接近RVR物理意义的基础能见度;当前基于深度学习模型的航空能见度预报技术难以预报出能见度发生转折变化的特征,尚无法提供长时间的有效预报。因此,本文展望人工智能技术及数值预报技术发展的趋势,将两者相结合,结合有效的气象因子预报,建立带有物理约束的能见度智能预报模型,或将能够提供高精度的能见度预报产品。

    Abstract:

    The main visibility observation indicators for civil aviation ground meteorology include Runway Visual Range (RVR),Dominant Visibility (VIS),and Meteorological Optical Range (MOR). RVR is the visibility standard recognized by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) for determining the takeoff and landing of aircraft. The RVR estimation models recognized by ICAO are monopolized by foreign aviation instrument manufacturers,which hinders the development of RVR early warning and forecasting technology. Compared to MOR,RVR is also affected by the vertical distribution of visibility and is closely related to background brightness and runway light intensity. The complexity of the boundary layer structure and the unpredictability of non-meteorological factors both pose challenges for the early warning and forecasting of RVR. This article introduces the relationship between RVR,MOR and VIS,analyzes the impact of meteorological factors,background brightness,and runway light intensity on RVR,reviews the current technological progress in visibility forecast in the aviation industry,and explores possible ways to improve the aviation visibility forecast skill. RVR, MOR, and VIS all represent visibility,with different physical significance,detection standards,and influencing factors,leading to significant different values. But,they have a high correlation and can be substitutable under some certain conditions. The influence mechanism of meteorological factors on MOR has been widely studied,but there is a lack of research on the impact characteristics of background brightness and runway light intensity on RVR. There is no brightness factors forecast at present,which affects the the accuracy of RVR forecast. Compared to the current ground observation of MOR,using lidar and satellite measurements of slant visibility can provide a more a more RVR-physical-significance-based fundamental visibility. Currentaviation visibility forecasting technologies based on deep learning models struggle to forecast the inflection points in visibility evolution trends and are unable to provide long-term effective forecasts. Looking forward to the development trends of artificial intelligence and numerical forecasting technologies,combining these two methods and integrating effective meteorological factor forecasting to establish a physically contrained intelligent visibility forecast model may be able to provide high-precision visibility forecasting products.

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徐琪,慕熙昱,于洁,张强,吴昊,严殊祺.航空能见度预警预报技术进展.气象科学,2025,45(1):40-48 XU Qi, MU Xiyu, YU Jie, ZHANG Qiang, WU Hao, YAN Shuqi. Progress of aviation visibility early warning and forecasting technology. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(1):40-48

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-11
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-03-08
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