鄱阳湖老爷庙沉船事件的气象条件分析
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P434.5

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41475062)


Analysis of meteorological conditions for shipwrecks in Laoyemiao waters of Poyang Lake
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    摘要:

    本文利用1959—2015年鄱阳湖老爷庙水域及其周边6个气象站的逐日观测资料、鄱阳湖星子自动气象站逐小时观测资料、历史天气图及台风路径资料,对1973—2014年8次老爷庙水域沉船事件的气象条件进行分析,得到以下结论:(1)老爷庙水域的风速和风向与地形及特定天气系统密切相关,风场变化复杂,大风较多;(2)8次沉船事件都与大风有关,分别发生在冬半年冷空气(冷高压)与锋面等主要天气系统过境和夏半年易受热带气旋影响的时段,且冷空气的强弱与事故无明显关联;(3)老爷庙水域的大风易形成较大的浪高,8次事件的最大可能浪高均超过1 m,突发风浪是导致航船失事的重要原因;(4)老爷庙水域大风及风向的变化频繁,由此引起的波浪突然改变增大了老爷庙水域船舶航行的风险。

    Abstract:

    Based on daily meteorological data of six observation stations surrounding Laoyemiao waters from 1959 to 2015, hourly observation data at Poyang Lake Xingzi automatic meteorological station, the historical surface weather map of the Asia Pacific region, and the western North Pacific tropical cyclone database, the possible causes of 8 shipwrecks in Laoyemiao water area since 1970 from the perspective of meteorology were analyzed. Results show that changes of wind speed, direction and seasonal gales in Laoyemiao waters are closely related to the local topography and special synoptic systems. The eight shipwrecks were all associated with strong winds, occurring in the winter half year when cold air (cold high pressure) and fronts are the main transit weather systems, and in the summer half year when they are susceptible to tropical cyclones. The wave height in Laoyemiao waters is highly related to the strong winds, and all maximum wave heights causing 8 shipwrecks are higher than 1 m. Strong winds and their frequent changes in direction lead to sudden increase of wind and changes of wave height and/or wave propagation direction in Laoyemiao waters, causing the vessel to be suddenly subjected to crosswind and wave action.

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程永峰,陈星.鄱阳湖老爷庙沉船事件的气象条件分析.气象科学,2024,44(4):673-683 CHENG Yongfeng, CHEN Xing. Analysis of meteorological conditions for shipwrecks in Laoyemiao waters of Poyang Lake. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(4):673-683

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  • 收稿日期:2021-12-07
  • 最后修改日期:2021-12-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-09-23
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