丘陵地区降水诱发滑坡地质灾害的阈值分析——以巴中市恩阳区为例
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P694;P954

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41704105)


Threshold analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazards in hilly area: case study of Enyang district, Bazhong city
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    摘要:

    利用降水阈值模型对典型丘陵地区的227个滑坡点进行降水诱发滑坡地质灾害的分析。结果表明:2009—2018年227例降水型滑坡中,降水引起当日发生2起及2起以上滑坡事件的共143起滑坡,约占总滑坡起数的63%;降水引起当日发生3起及3起以上滑坡事件的共99起,约占总滑坡起数的43%。因此,恩阳区受降水影响的滑坡事件具有群发性特征。利用降雨和滑坡数据可以获得恩阳区降水诱发滑坡的降水强度—降水历时阈值曲线和具有滑坡群发性特征的降水强度—降水历时阈值曲线。此外,当0 <D≤2时,选择常规降水阈值曲线模型进行预警;当D>2时,选择群发性的降水阈值曲线进行预警,以此得到组合模型;组合模型解决了常规的滑坡降水阈值曲线对降水是否诱发滑坡的预警空报率较高,而群发性的滑坡降水阈值曲线的漏报率较高的问题。

    Abstract:

    The rainfall threshold model is used to analyze the 227 cases of geological disasters of rainfall-induced landslides in typical hilly areas in the purpose of providing a reference for rainfall threshold for studying the relationship between rainfall and landslides. The results show that among the 227 cases of rainfall-type landslides from 2009 to 2018, there are 143 cases and 99 cases with more than 2 and more than 3 landslides event induced by rainfall in the same day, accounting for about 63% and 43% of the total landslides events, respectively. Thus it can be concluded that landslides affected by rainfall in Enyang District have the characteristics of mass occurrence. The rainfall intensity-rainfall duration threshold curve of rainfall-induced landslides in Enyang District, as well as the rainfall intensity with landslide mass-rainfall duration threshold curve can be obtained through analysis. According to the characteristics of time, the accuracy of forecast of rainfall-induced landslide events is improved. When 0<D ≤ 2, the conventional rainfall threshold curve model can be selected for forecasting, while when D>2, the mass rainfall threshold curve is selected for early forecasting. This study can solve the problem that the conventional landslide rainfall threshold curve has a higher false alarm rate for whether rainfall induces landslides, and the problem that the mass landslide rainfall threshold curve has a higher false alarm rate.

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李俊杰,王卫红,冉茂莹.丘陵地区降水诱发滑坡地质灾害的阈值分析——以巴中市恩阳区为例.气象科学,2022,42(2):279-284 LI Junjie, WANG Weihong, RAN Maoying. Threshold analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazards in hilly area: case study of Enyang district, Bazhong city. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(2):279-284

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-29
  • 最后修改日期:2021-02-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-05-31
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