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首页 > 过刊浏览>2012年第32卷第4期 >403-410. DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0086
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四川盆地短历时强降水极值分布的研究
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国家重点基础研究发展计划 (973计划) 项目(2012CB955903);国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC29B0602)


Research on extreme value distribution of short-duration heavy precipitation in the Sichuan Basin
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    摘要:

    运用广义帕雷托分布(GPD)和广义极值分布(GEV),借助于L-矩的参数估计方法,对四川盆地12站的小时极端降水量进行拟合,并对两种模型的拟合效果进行比较。运用Hill图,结合统计量D*来确定GPD的最佳门限值是合适的,选出的样本是独立的。各站的小时极端降水概率分布均符合GPD和GEV,但GPD模型的拟合精度要优于GEV模型。利用两种模型推算出各站给定重现期的最大小时降水量,其中泸州50 a一遇和100 a一遇的降水极值分位数都超过了100 mm,除了遂宁站外,两种模型估计出的极值分位数的相对误差基本都在10％以下。通过分析,GPD推算的结果更加可靠。

    Abstract:

    The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) are used to fit the hourly extreme-precipitation of twelve stations in the Sichuan Basin, based on parameter estimation method of L-moment. Then we compare the effects of the two models. It is appropriate to use Hill plot with D* to determine the optimal threshold of GPD, and the selected samples are independent. The probability distribution of hourly extreme-precipitation of each station is all in line with GPD and GEV, but GPD model shows better fitting accuracy than GEV model. The maximum hourly precipitation with a given return period was calculated by the two models for each station. The extreme quantiles for 50 a and 100 a return period in Luzhou exceeded 100 mm. In addition to Suining, the relative errors of the estimation of extreme quantiles are basically below 10％ for each model. The estimated results based on GPD are more reliable by the analysis.

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司波,余锦华,丁裕国.四川盆地短历时强降水极值分布的研究.气象科学,2012,32(4):403-410 SI Bo, YU Jinhua, DING Yuguo. Research on extreme value distribution of short-duration heavy precipitation in the Sichuan Basin. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(4):403-410

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  • 收稿日期:2011-10-20
  • 最后修改日期:2011-11-15
  • 在线发布日期: 2012-08-16
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