6种数值模式在安徽区域天气预报中的检验
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P459.9

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中国气象局业务建设类项目“安徽省天气预报手册”


The verification of six numerical models for weather forecast in Anhui province
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    摘要:

    本文检验了从2006年6月到2008年12月,Grapes、MM5、WRF、T213、JMA和Germany〖JP〗共6个模式对安徽区域72 h内降水量、风速和气温的预报。降水量TS评分显示,从小雨到大雨,JMA的参考价值较高,从大雨到大暴雨则是MM5和WRF比较好;Germany和T213的评分均处于中间水平,而Grapes评分最低。冬夏季各模式的预报较好,其他季节预报较差。风速,24 h JMA和T213的预报较好,48、72 h MM5和WRF的参考价值较高。气温,24、48 h MM5和WRF预报较好,而72 h则是MM5和T213好。Grapes对风速和气温的预报相对较差。上述检验结果不仅有助于预报员更好地利用数值模式制作天气预报,而且为数值天气预报的解释应用提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    From June of 2006 to December of 2008, Grapes, MM5, WRF, T213, JMA and Germany predictions of the rainfall, surface wind velocity and surface atmospheric temperature within three days are verified in Anhui province. The results show: the TS of JMA is the highest under the condition of rain fall from 0 to 50 mm/d, those of MM5 and WRF are the highest under the condition of above 50mm/d. The TS of Grapes is the lowest. The others are secondary. The surface wind velocity forecasts of JMA and T213 within one day are better, and those of MM5 and WRF from 48 h to 72 h are better. The surface atmospheric temperature forecasts of MM5 and WRF within two days are better, and those of MM5 and T213 for 72 h are better. 〖JP2〗These conclusions remarkably help forecasters make good use of numerical weather forecast models in order to forecast weather accurately.

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周 昆,郝元甲,姚 晨,邱学兴.6种数值模式在安徽区域天气预报中的检验.气象科学,2010,(6):801-805 Zhou Kun, Hao Yuanjia, Yao Chen, Qiu Xuexing. The verification of six numerical models for weather forecast in Anhui province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2010,(6):801-805

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  • 收稿日期:2009-06-08
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