参考作物蒸散模型对比分析及评价
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S161.4

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(40675067);江苏省研究生创新计划项目(CX09B-222Z)


Evaluation on models for reference crop evapotranspiration
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    摘要:

    利用山东省6个气象台站45 a(1960—2004年)的逐日气象资料并选用7种参考作物蒸散模型,分别计算了上述各地的参考作物蒸散,对模型结果进行时空分布对比分析;进而以FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith模型为对照,利用最小一乘法对其余6种模型进行优化并对优化前后的模型进行时空比较。结果表明:Makkink模型在6个台站的时空分布模拟效果均最好,Mass-transfer模型在7—8月明显偏低,Net Radiation模型各站全年基本都偏高;根据不同月份的相对偏差情况,采用最小一乘法进行分月优化,优化后的模型预测月参考作物蒸散标准误差小于5 mm,平均相对误差小于85%,台站的年参考作物蒸散相对误差也基本小于10%,说明这些含参数较少的模型经优化后基本上可用,当资料缺损时不失为Penman-Monteith模型的替代模型。

    Abstract:

    The long-term changes of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) were estimated over the period 1960-2004 at six meteorological stations in Shandong Province based on seven different models driven by routine daily meteorological date. Firstly, the variability of predicted ET0 over the space and time scale has been compared, then the other six models were optimized by means of Least Absolute Deviation method according to Penman-Monteith model recommended by FAO and comparison values of ET0 between pre- and post-optimization. The results showed that Makkink model was the best of all, while Mass transfer model underestimated much from June to August, and Net Radiation model overestimated throughout the year at all the stations. After optimization, models gave a better estimation for monthly ET0 with a mean relative deviation error (MRE) less than 85%, and less than 10% for yearly ET0. Therefore, the models perhaps can be used instead where and/or when meteorological data were absent.

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张方敏,申双和,金之庆.参考作物蒸散模型对比分析及评价.气象科学,2009,(6):749-754 Zhang Fangmin,Shen Shuanghe, Jin Zhiqing. Evaluation on models for reference crop evapotranspiration. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2009,(6):749-754

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  • 收稿日期:2008-07-10
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