黄河断流与El Ni(~n)o事件的遥相关
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P46

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本文受中国科学院大气物理研究所知识创新重大科研项目(编号:8-3102)和中南林学院青年科技基金共同资助


THE CONNECTION FROM FAR BETWEEN THE HUANGHE RIVER FLUX SUSPEND AND El Ni(~n)o
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    摘要:

    黄河断流事件的发生是人为因素与自然因素——人类生产活动用水量急增与天然径流量骤减共同作用的结果。自然因素作为天然背景具有不可低估的作用,在引起黄河断流的所有气候因子中,降水减少的贡献最显著,其次是蒸发增加的影响。当代黄河断流事件的发生和持续加重似与El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件的频繁发生及其持续强劲有某种关联,本文即通过对黄河径流及其流域内的降水、蒸发、气温等方面气候因素与El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件的遥相关作用进行分析,寻求导致黄河径流减少的可能原因,从而揭示黄河断流与El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件的联系。结果表明,通常情况下,El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件发生时,黄河流域年平均降水量减少10.35%,可造成黄河年径流减少12.95% (含有来自蒸发增加所造成的影响),约相当于减少73.45×108 m3的水量。随El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件强度的加深,降水量与径流量均迅速递减,强El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件黄河流域年平均降水量减少20.43%,黄河径流量减少25.59%(147.17×108m3);1997年断流最严重时降水减少30.62%,径流骤减40.27%(229.96×108 m3 )。可见El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件对黄河断流所造成的影响是相当深刻的。

    Abstract:

    In the background of the contemporary runoff suspend in the Huanghe River,natural factors play a great role. Precipitation decrease may be one of the most obvious climate elements that cause the river flux to decrease drastically.Then follows the evaporation increase.The Huanghe River runoff suspends happened very often since 1972.It sounds curiously coincident that the phenomenon has something to do with the frequency and intensities of El Ni〖AKn~D〗o events.In this article,there is a remote relationship between the two different events after analyzing the fundamental reason that leads to the river flux cutoff through discussing the climate elements in the Huanghe River valley affected by El Ni〖AKn~D〗o.The results indicate that El Ni〖AKn~D〗o would cause the Huanghe River annual precipitation to decrease by a factor of 10.36% and then decrease the river runoff by 12.95 % in annual average (including the effect of the evaporation increase that causes the runoff to decrease),equivalent to losing a water flux of 73.45 108m3 per year.As the intensity of El Ni〖AKn~D〗o becomes stronger,the precipitation and runoff decrease drastically.The strong El Ni〖AKn~D〗o events would bring about a river flux reduction of 25.59% (147.17 108m3) in annual average.In 1997,the year of the most serious El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event,the flux of the river decreased by 40.27% (229.96 108m3).

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赖比星.黄河断流与El Ni(~n)o事件的遥相关.气象科学,2005,(6):594-608 Lai Bixing. THE CONNECTION FROM FAR BETWEEN THE HUANGHE RIVER FLUX SUSPEND AND El Ni(~n)o. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2005,(6):594-608

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  • 收稿日期:2003-08-08
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