山东省近40a来的气温和降水变化趋势分析
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北京师范大学京师学者特聘教授启动经费


LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN SHANDONG PROVINCE
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    摘要:

    本文利用非参数检验法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了山东省15个站点近40 a(1958—1998)来气温和降水的长期变化趋势。结果表明:全省气温除西南的莘县、兖州有下降趋势外,大部分地区呈现上升趋势,全省平均上升0.06℃/10a。分季情况为:春季和冬季气温有上升趋势,其中冬季气温上升对全省气温上升的贡献率最大。夏季气温基本保持不变,秋季气温有下降趋势。全省除济南降水量呈略微上升趋势外,其余地区的降水倾向率均为负值,全省的降水倾向率为-3.05 mm/a。表明山东省自1960年以来,年均降水量呈现减少趋势。减少幅度东南部大于西北部,以东南沿海平均减少幅度最大。

    Abstract:

    The Mann-Kendall statistic test is a rank-based, non-parametric method. It has been widely used to estimate the significance of long-term trends in hydro-meteorological time series such as water quality, streamflow, temperature, and precipitation, etc. Temperature and precipitation are two kinds of the most important climate factors. It is of great importance for the development of economics and agriculture to analyze the long-term trends of temperature and precipitation. The long-term trend of temperature and precipitation in Shandong Province was analyzed in this paper. The data used in this paper were observed at 15 meteorological stations. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to annual and monthly temperature and precipitation time series. The results show that the temperature exhibited an increasing trend during the past 40 years, especially in winter, during which the slope was 036 ℃/(10a).The 1990s is the warmest periods in the past 40 years, and the eastern region of the study area show more obvious increasing trend. The precipitation exhibited significant decreasing trend and the slope is 305mm/a. The north-eastern area of Shandong Province contributed the most to decreasing trend of the precipitation.

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徐宗学,孟翠玲,赵芳芳.山东省近40a来的气温和降水变化趋势分析.气象科学,2007,(4):387-393 Xu Zongxue, Meng Cuiling, Zhao Fangfang. LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN SHANDONG PROVINCE. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2007,(4):387-393

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  • 收稿日期:2005-08-18
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