台风“利奇马”造成浙江极端降水的成因分析
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P458.1

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浙江省自然科学基金(LY18D050001);中国气象局关键技术发展专项(YBGJXM(2018)1B-06);浙江省气象科技计划重点项目(2017ZD03)


Analysis on the causes of extreme precipitation by typhoon “Lekima”(1909) in Zhejiang Province
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    摘要:

    利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料(0.25°×0.25°)、FY-2G卫星的黑体亮度温度(TBB)、双偏振雷达、加密自动站资料,对2019年台风"利奇马"引发浙江极端暴雨过程的成因进行分析,结果表明:(1)"利奇马"引发的浙江特大暴雨过程是一次深厚台风本体降水,具有范围广、总量大、局地雨强极端的特点,山脉地形对降水的增幅作用显著。(2)台风登陆前后850 hPa水汽通量、850 hPa辐合和200 hPa辐散都超过气候平均值3~4个标准差,异常强的动力抬升和水汽输送为此次极端降水提供了有利的背景条件,物理量的异常度可作为判断极端降水的重要因子。(3)活跃的西南季风和副高南部的偏东急流为"利奇马"提供了充足的水汽和能量。925 hPa水汽通量辐合大值区域与暴雨落区的形态和位置对应较好,且辐合强度的变化对降水量具有一定的指示意义。(4)登陆前后台风中心密闭云区范围大、结构紧实,其中有多个中尺度对流系统强烈发展且移动缓慢,是浙江东部沿海地区产生极端降水的主要原因。基于双偏振雷达的降水估测产品在短临预报中参考价值高。(5)中层的弱干冷空气和低层的强暖湿气流促进了对流不稳定层结的发展和维持,在地面中尺度辐合线和地形的强迫抬升下不断触发中尺度对流系统并产生"列车效应",是此次过程中西北部山区特大暴雨产生的重要原因。

    Abstract:

    Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (0.25°×0.25°), FY-2G Temperature of Brightness Blackbody (TBB) product, dual-polarimetric radar data, the hourly observations from Zhejiang Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), the causes of extraordinary rainstorm by typhoon "Lekima" (1909) in Zhejiang Province are diagnosed. The results are as follows:(1) The extreme precipitation in Zhejiang Province was induced by deep body circulation of "Lekima", which has the characteristics of wide coverage range, large total amount and extreme local rainfall intensity. Topography has a significant effect on local heavy rainfall reinforcement. (2) The moisture flux at 850 hPa, the convergence at 850 hPa and the divergence at 200 hPa all exceed the climate average by 3-4 standard deviations either before or after the typhoon landing, moreover, the abnormally strong dynamic uplift and moisture transport provide favorable conditions for extreme rainfall. The anomaly of physical quantities plays an important factor in judging extreme precipitation. (3) The active southwest monsoon and the easterly jet stream in the south of the subtropical high provide sufficient vapor and energy for typhoon"Lekima". The shape and location of the large-value region of water vapor flux at 925 hPa corresponds well with those of the rainstorm area, and the variation of convergence intensity has certain indication significance for precipitation. (4) The enclosed cloud area in the typhoon center before and after landing is large in scope and compact in structure, with several mesoscale convective systems developing strongly and moving slowly, which is the main reason for extreme precipitation in the eastern coastal areas of Zhejiang. The precipitation particle phase identification products of dual-polarization radar have high reference value in nowcasting forecast. (5) The weak cold air in the middle troposphere and warm wet air in the lower layer promote the development and maintenance of instability convective stratification. With the forced uplift of ground mesoscale convergence lines and topography, mesoscale convective system is constantly triggered and the train-effect is occurred,which is also an important factor for the local extraordinary rainstorm in northwest mountainous areas in this process.

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娄小芬,马昊,黄旋旋,刘汉华,彭霞云.台风“利奇马”造成浙江极端降水的成因分析.气象科学,2020,40(1):78-88 LOU Xiaofen, MA Hao, HUANG Xuanxuan, LIU Hanhua, PENG Xiayun. Analysis on the causes of extreme precipitation by typhoon “Lekima”(1909) in Zhejiang Province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(1):78-88

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  • 收稿日期:2019-09-16
  • 最后修改日期:2019-10-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-03-16
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