叶家成,杜新观,余锦华.影响中国大陆热带气旋路径分类及其特征研究.气象科学,2019,39(3):304-311 YE Jiachang,DU Xinguan,YU Jinhua.Study on the classification and characteristics of tropical cyclone tracks in mainland China.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2019,39(3):304-311
影响中国大陆热带气旋路径分类及其特征研究
Study on the classification and characteristics of tropical cyclone tracks in mainland China
投稿时间:2017-11-08  修订日期:2018-02-13
DOI:10.3969/2018jms.0021
中文关键词:  热带气旋  路径分类  类型特征  气候趋势
英文关键词:tropical cyclone  classification of tracks  type characteristics  climatic trend
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(2015CB453200);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41575083;41575108)
作者单位E-mail
叶家成 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044  
杜新观 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044  
余锦华 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044 jhyu@nuist.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      热带气旋(TC)是影响中国的重要天气系统,对TC路径分类有助于认识热带气旋的活动特征。本文采用中国气象局热带气旋资料中心提供的1949至2016年6-11月最佳TC路径资料,选取TC质心、生命史、转向、强度等特征参数,利用K-means聚类方法将影响中国大陆的热带气旋分为4类。对4类路径进行比对分析后发现各类TC的走向、生命史、活动季节、登陆概率及区域等特征差异显著,TC单体强度和生命史在强厄尔尼诺发展年也有不同程度的增强。在年代际变化上,1998年以来,尽管各类TC频数变化趋势不同,但各类TC单体能量耗散指数均有不同程度的增长趋势,这可能与近年来强厄尔尼诺发展有关。
英文摘要:
      Tropical Cyclone (TC) is an important tropical weather system that affects mainland China. Classification for tropical cyclone tracks is conducive to the study of its characteristics. This paper is based on the best track data from 1949 to 2016 (from June to November) provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of, CMA. TCs affecting mainland China are classified into 4 clusters by K-means based on parameters such as centroids, life spans, steering and intensities. There is obvious distinction between clusters in tracks, life spans, seasonal patterns and landing frequency and regions. During the development of strong El Nino, the intensity and life span of each cluster of TC also increase in different degrees. In terms of the climatic trend, although each cluster shows different tendency in frequency, the single PDI are all in an ascending tendency since 1998, which may be attributed to the development of strong El Nino in recent years.
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