黄丹,耿焕同,谢佩妍,李俊徽.基于FMM算法的我国寒潮路径分类及气候特征分析.气象科学,2018,(6):759-767 HUANG Dan,GENG Huantong,XIE Peiyan,LI Junhui.Classification of cold wave paths in China and analysis of climate characteristics based on FMM algorithm.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,(6):759-767
基于FMM算法的我国寒潮路径分类及气候特征分析
Classification of cold wave paths in China and analysis of climate characteristics based on FMM algorithm
投稿时间:2017-05-26  修订日期:2018-03-06
DOI:10.3969/2018jms.0026
中文关键词:  FMM算法  寒潮  路径聚类  活动特征  环流形势
英文关键词:Finite mixture model algorithm  Cold wave  Path clustering  Characteristics  Atmospheric circulation
基金项目:江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20151458);江苏省青蓝工程
作者单位E-mail
黄丹 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044  
耿焕同 南京信息工程大学 继续教育学院, 南京 210044 genghuantong@163.com 
谢佩妍 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044  
李俊徽 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044  
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中文摘要:
      利用1965-2015年冬半年寒潮过程数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过FMM算法聚类分析,将影响我国寒潮路径确定为4类,并统计分析了不同类型路径寒潮的活动变化趋势以及环流特征。研究结果表明:各类路径寒潮的频数、强度、季节分布和年际变化存在显著差异,第一类西路转向型寒潮频数最多且逐年减少趋势最大,第三类西北型寒潮强度最大,第四类西路型寒潮在春季频发且变化趋势平缓;在寒潮爆发时刻,500 hPa温压场配置、风场转变、高层涡度平流和冷暖平流以及地面冷高压分布与寒潮路径的选择密切相关,其中第二类北路型寒潮的低槽、负涡度区和冷平流区偏东分布,第三类则相应偏西。
英文摘要:
      Based on the cold wave activity data of the winter half year from 1965-2015 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the study applies finite-mixed-model algorithm based clustering analysis to identify the cold wave paths affecting China as four clusters. The activity variation trends and circulation characteristics of the four clusters of cold waves, with different paths are analyzed. The results prove that the frequency, intensity, seasonal distribution and inter annual variation of cold waves, with different paths are significantly different. Cluster-1 cold waves which enter from the west and then turn its direction appear most frequently and have the largest tendency of year-by-year decrease, the cluster-3 code waves, which enter from the west are with the highest intensity, cluster-4 cold, waves which are from the west appear frequently in spring and the variation trend is gradual. During the cold outburst, temperature-pressure field configuration, transition of wind field, distribution of high-level advection of vorticity and temperature advection and surface cold high pressure are closely related with selection of cold wave path. The low trough, negative vorticity area and cold advection area of cluster-2 code waves which are from the north are distributed eastward, while those of cluster-3 code waves are distributed westward.
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