刘文菁,徐敏,徐经纬,任义方.基于环流和海温的稻曲病指数长期预报模型研究.气象科学,2018,(5):659-665 LIU Wenjing,XU Min,XU Jingwei,REN Yifang.Long-term prediction models based on atmospheric circulation and SST factors for the rice false smut index in Jiangsu rice area.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,(5):659-665
基于环流和海温的稻曲病指数长期预报模型研究
Long-term prediction models based on atmospheric circulation and SST factors for the rice false smut index in Jiangsu rice area
投稿时间:2017-08-30  修订日期:2017-12-04
DOI:10.3969/2017jms.0089
中文关键词:  水稻稻曲病指数  预报模型  海温  大气环流
英文关键词:Rice false smut index  Prediction modes  Sea surface temperature  Atmospheric circulation
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306035);江苏省气象局科研基金(KM201707)
作者单位E-mail
刘文菁 江苏省气象局, 南京 210008  
徐敏 江苏省气象局, 南京 210008 amin0506@163.com 
徐经纬 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/资料同化研究与应用中心, 南京 210044  
任义方 江苏省气象局, 南京 210008  
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中文摘要:
      稻曲病属于典型的"气象型"病害,为了提前预报出适宜稻曲病发生的气象等级与提供足够的防治准备时间,根据中长期天气预报原理,充分考虑大气环流和太平洋海温对区域气象条件影响的滞后性,利用近40 a的江苏逐日气象观测资料、大气环流指数和海温资料,采用空间拓扑原理和最优相关普查等统计方法,挑选出了对综合稻曲病指数影响最显著的预报因子,并通过滑动平均和主成分识别等检验方法确保预报因子的稳定性和独立性,最终分别建立了基于大气环流因子和基于海温因子的综合稻曲病指数长期预报模型。经过检验,两种模型的模拟效果均理想,能提前一个月预报出综合稻曲病指数以及对应的发病气象等级,因此可投入业务使用,预报结果将对科学防治稻曲病和提高水稻品质具有重要作用。
英文摘要:
      Rice false smut belongs to the typical weather diseases. In order to predict the degree of meteorological grade of rice false smut happened at least one month in advance accurately, this study was made,using the data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), atmospheric circulation indices and daily observation. Two long-term prediction models of meteorological grade of rice false smut were established based on the atmospheric circulation factors and based on SST factors by the optimal correlation and spatial topological analysis technology and the impact of atmospheric circulation and Pacific SST on meteorological conditions "treads effect". In addition, the statistical methods, such as moving average and principal component, were used for the forecast factor having stability and independence to the comprehensive index of rice false smut. Furthermore, through the historical fitting and forecast testing, the results of the two prediction models show reasonable. The meteorological grade of rice false smut could be predicted by the models at least one month in advance. Therefore, the prediction results have a significant guiding meaning for agricultural production and prevention and improvement of rice quality.
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