李学文,高超,尹周祥,阮甜.淮河上游地区夏玉米生长降水关键期内旱涝致灾降水阈值研究.气象科学,2018,(4):477-488 LI Xuewen,GAO Chao,YIN Zhouxiang,RUAN Tian.Study on precipitation thresholds of drought and flood disasters in the key period of precipitation for summer maize in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,(4):477-488
淮河上游地区夏玉米生长降水关键期内旱涝致灾降水阈值研究
Study on precipitation thresholds of drought and flood disasters in the key period of precipitation for summer maize in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River
投稿时间:2016-12-26  修订日期:2017-07-27
DOI:10.3969/2017jms.0071
中文关键词:  夏玉米  旱涝致灾降水阈值  降水概率分位数法  最优概率分布模型
英文关键词:Summer maize  Precipitation threshold of drought and flood disasters  Method of precipitation probability  Optimal probability distribution model
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41571018)
作者单位E-mail
李学文 安徽师范大学 国土资源与旅游学院, 安徽 芜湖 241000
安徽师范大学 江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心, 安徽 芜湖 241000 
 
高超 安徽师范大学 国土资源与旅游学院, 安徽 芜湖 241000
安徽师范大学 江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心, 安徽 芜湖 241000 
gaoqinchao1@163.com 
尹周祥 安徽师范大学 国土资源与旅游学院, 安徽 芜湖 241000
安徽师范大学 江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心, 安徽 芜湖 241000 
 
阮甜 安徽师范大学 国土资源与旅游学院, 安徽 芜湖 241000
安徽师范大学 江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心, 安徽 芜湖 241000 
 
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中文摘要:
      基于淮河上游地区11个气象站点1959—2015年降水资料,利用夏玉米气候产量与生育期降水序列进行相关性分析,确定降水影响夏玉米生长的关键时段,定义为夏玉米生长降水关键期,并采用21种分布函数对降水关键期内降水序列进行拟合,选取K-S和A-D方法进行拟合优度检验,建立最优概率分布模型,再基于降水概率分位数法定量化设计夏玉米各级旱涝的降水阈值R,并验证指标的合理性。结果表明:(1)淮河上游地区夏玉米抽雄-成熟生育时段及前一旬降水量对夏玉米产量影响显著;(2)各站点夏玉米生长降水关键期内降水序列的最优概率分布模型差异明显;(3)11个站点夏玉米各级旱涝灾害的降水阈值地区差异较大,利用泰森多边形法确定整个淮河上游地区夏玉米生长降水关键期内旱涝致灾降水阈值分别是:重旱R < 73 mm,旱73 mm ≤ R < 138 mm,正常138 mm ≤ R < 337 mm,涝337 mm ≤ R < 475 mm,重涝R ≥ 475 mm。
英文摘要:
      Based on the climatic records of 11 meteorological stations in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River from 1959 to 2015, the correlation analysis was conducted using the climatic yield of summer maize and the precipitation sequence in the growth period to determine the key period that precipitation have the greatest influence on summer maize and define it as the key period of precipitation for summer maize. In addition, 21 distribution functions were applied to fit the precipitation series in the key period of precipitation and meanwhile the test of goodness of fit was conducted by K-S and A-D method to create the optimal probability distribution model. Further, the precipitation thresholds R of all levels of drought and flood in summer maize were designed based on the probability of quantitation of precipitation probability, and the rationality of the index was verified. The results show that (1) precipitation in the tassel-mature stage and the first ten days of the tassel-mature stage has significant effect on the yield of summer maize in the upper reaches of Huaihe River; (2) The optimal probability distribution models of precipitation sequences in the critical growth period of summer maize and precipitation were significantly different at each station; (3) The precipitation thresholds of all levels of drought and flood disasters for summer maize in 11 stations were varied in different regions. The Tyson polygon method was used to determine the precipitation thresholds of drought and flood disasters in the key period of precipitation for summer maize in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River, namely severe drought R < 73 mm, drought 73 mm ≤ R < 138 mm, normal condition 138 mm ≤ R < 337 mm, flood 337 mm ≤ R < 475 mm, severe flood R ≥ 475 mm.
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