王文,任冉,李耀辉.基于EEMD的黄河中上游夏季降水预报方法的研究.气象科学,,(): WANG Wen,REN Ran,LI Yaohui.Summer rainfall prediction in the up and middle reaches of the Yellow River with EEMD method.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,,():
基于EEMD的黄河中上游夏季降水预报方法的研究
Summer rainfall prediction in the up and middle reaches of the Yellow River with EEMD method
投稿时间:2013-09-11  修订日期:2014-01-05
DOI:10.3969/2014jms.0004
中文关键词:  降水  EEMD  组合预报  集合预报  二次平稳化
英文关键词:Precipitation  EEMD  Combined forecasting  Ensemble forecasting  Second stationary process
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006038,GYHY201006023)
作者单位E-mail
王文 南京信息工程大学, 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 大气科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044 wwllw003@126.com 
任冉 南京信息工程大学, 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 大气科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044  
李耀辉 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730020  
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中文摘要:
      传统的统计方法难以很好的对气候系统这一集非线性、非平稳性为一身的多层次系统进行处理。因此集层次化处理和平稳化处理的集合正交经验模态分解技术(EEMD)的提出,为解决上述问题提供了有效的途径。本文选取黄河中上游24个气象观测站的逐月降水资料,结合组合预报和集合预报思路,基于EEMD建立了统计预报模型。其中对降水序列中的高频部分进行了二次平稳化处理,实现对2008—2013年6—8月的降水预报,并用预报评分检测预报效果。结果表明:该模型对黄河中上游夏季降水有着较强的预报能力,在该区域与气候模式和传统的统计方法相比具有更高的精度和更好的应用前景。
英文摘要:
      As traditional statistical method has difficulty in dealing with nonlinear and non-stationary climate system, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) was found to stabilize the climatic time series in an effective way. Based on the monthly precipitation from 24 weather stations during 1951-2012,the statistical prediction model based on EEMD is built combined with combined forecasting and ensemble forecasting. The high-frequent part in the precipitation series was stabilized secondaryly and the precipitation forecasting from June to August during 2008-2013 was realized, which was tested by forecast score. The prediction effect shows that the model has a stronger ability, a higher accuracy and better application prospect on summer precipitation forecasting in the region than climate patterns and traditional statistical method.
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