涂小萍,姚日升,张程明.GRAPES_TCM模式对影响浙江省热带气旋风力的预报评估.气象科学,,(): TU Xiaoping,YAO Risheng,ZHANG Chengming.Verification of GRAPES_TCM model in wind forecasts on tropical cyclones in Zhejiang province.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,,():
GRAPES_TCM模式对影响浙江省热带气旋风力的预报评估
Verification of GRAPES_TCM model in wind forecasts on tropical cyclones in Zhejiang province
投稿时间:2012-11-13  修订日期:2013-04-15
DOI:10.3969/2013jms.0034
中文关键词:  预报评估  GRAPES_TCM模式  热带气旋  MOS方法
英文关键词:Forecast veritication  GRAPES_TCM  Tropical cyclones  MOS
基金项目:宁波市科技局科技计划项目(2012C50044);上海台风研究基金(2009ST01);浙江省气象科技计划项目(2010YB05)
作者单位E-mail
涂小萍 宁波市气象台, 浙江宁波 315012 txp_hk@yahoo.com.cn 
姚日升 宁波市气象台, 浙江宁波 315012  
张程明 宁波市气象台, 浙江宁波 315012  
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中文摘要:
      基于2006—2011年热带气旋影响时浙江省气象站实测风力和上海台风研究所GRAPES_TCM模式输出资料分析得出:模式地形高度与实际差异越大则直接输出风速平均误差越大,通过对浙江沿海模式地形高度误差绝对值在10 m以内的站点进行风力预报评估,结果发现:12~72 h模式直接输出风速存在一定的系统性误差。模式对浙江沿海站点风力预报的TS评分随风力等级的提高而降低,主要缘于空报率的增大。BS评分则表明,模式对越强的风力越有过度预报的倾向。模式20时预报能力一般好于08时,其TS评分的提高主要得益于漏报率的降低。经MOS释用后可以在一定程度上提高站点风力预报与实况的正相关和预报稳定性,同时提高不同等级风力预报TS评分;12、24 h模式站点,6级以上风力预报能力与主观预报相当。
英文摘要:
      Based on wind speed of tropical cyclones from automatic weather stations in Zhejiang and GRAPES_TCM model outputs of U, V at 10 m from Shanghai Typhoon Institute during 2006-2011, verification has been done on different speed criteria in coastal areas of Zhejiang province. Result shows that the more the terrain simulation deviations are, the greater the mean errors of GRAPES model direct output velocity are. Wind speed verification on the stations with absolute model terrain deviations below 10 m indicates that there exist systematic errors in the model output velocities for the leading hours of 12-72 h. Threat scores tend to descend with speed criteria ascending, owing to increasing false alarming ratio. Bias scores imply that the model tends to overforecast the strongger winds. Analysis indicates that the model outputs issued at 08 PM perform better than those at 08 AM, because of the declining missing event ratio. MOS can improve correlation coefficients between forecast and practical speeds, as well as output stability and threat scores, moreover, it can also help improve the model threat scores to some extent with almost equivalent forecast ability to the subjective for leading hours of 12 and 24 h for wind force over 6.
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